Torrent 2–0 Orihuela: Result & Stats

Torrent

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orihuela

11/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Torrent41%

×Draw29%

Orihuela31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchOrihuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

Torrent

1.21

Orihuela

1.01

Torrent creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

0.87

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Orihuela

1.15

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Orihuela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Orihuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Orihuela →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

69%

Torrent or Orihuela

71%

Draw or Orihuela

59%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

18%

Orihuela wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

70%

Torrent 2+ goals

34%

Torrent 3+ goals

12%

Orihuela 1+ goals

64%

Orihuela 2+ goals

27%

Orihuela 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

57%

Orihuela (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Orihuela away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Orihuela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Orihuela attack 1.15 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torrent scores more

41%

level

29%

Orihuela scores more

31%

Torrent at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff