Torrent 4–1 Olímpic Xàtiva: Result & Stats

Torrent

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Olímpic Xàtiva

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Torrent51%

×Draw28%

Olímpic Xàtiva22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchOlímpic Xàtiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.80

Torrent

1.39

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.80

Torrent creates 74% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 44 away

1.36

creates per match

0.73

0.87

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.73

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

78%

Torrent or Olímpic Xàtiva

72%

Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva

49%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

25%

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

75%

Torrent 2+ goals

40%

Torrent 3+ goals

16%

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals

55%

Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals

19%

Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

70%

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torrent scores more

51%

level

28%

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more

22%

Torrent at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff