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Torrent vs Novelda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrent
Torrent
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Novelda
Novelda
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Torrent50%
×Draw26%
Novelda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrent
1.53
Novelda
0.99

Torrent creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torrent
1.36
Novelda
1.11

allows per match

Torrent
0.87
Novelda
1.70

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par
Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Novelda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torrent or draw
75%
Torrent or Novelda
74%
Draw or Novelda
50%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+
25%
Novelda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals
78%
Torrent 2+ goals
45%
Torrent 3+ goals
20%
Novelda 1+ goals
63%
Novelda 2+ goals
26%
Novelda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)
67%
Novelda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.53

Novelda attack 1.11 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torrent scores more
50%
level
26%
Novelda scores more
25%

Torrent at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrent 2–2 Novelda

Torrent and Novelda drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.