Torrent 1–1 Castellón II: Result & Stats

Torrent

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Castellón II

Álvaro 62'

Fermín Rodríguez 16'

10/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent46%

×Draw26%

Castellón II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchCastellón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

Torrent

1.45

Castellón II

1.04

Torrent creates 39% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 67 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

0.87

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Castellón II

1.22

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Castellón II

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Castellón II →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

73%

Torrent or Castellón II

74%

Draw or Castellón II

54%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

23%

Castellón II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

77%

Torrent 2+ goals

42%

Torrent 3+ goals

18%

Castellón II 1+ goals

65%

Castellón II 2+ goals

28%

Castellón II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

63%

Castellón II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torrent scores more

46%

level

26%

Castellón II scores more

27%

Torrent at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Fermín Rodríguez

46'

Álvaro← Emilio Martí

46'

Diego Radiu← Víctor Ferrando

62'

Álvaro

69'

I. García← Miguel Nemesio

69'

Roberto Laurel← Juanca Alarcón

70'

Germán Lidón← Marc Pitarch

75'

Nacho Gimeno← Pablo Roig

75'

Y. Fetheddine← M. Rivera

80'

A. Gardiner← Mauro Costa

83'

Miguel Arilla← Luis García

85'

Érik Alonso← Adrián Gomis

Torrent

Castellón

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vicente Mir

46'▲Álvaro←▼Emilio Martí

69'▲I. García←▼Miguel Nemesio

69'▲Roberto Laurel←▼Juanca Alarcón

83'▲Miguel Arilla←▼Luis García

85'▲Érik Alonso←▼Adrián Gomis

Torrent substitutes

ÁlvaroGarcíaLaurelArillaAlonso

Manager: Jim

46'▲Diego Radiu←▼Víctor Ferrando

70'▲Germán Lidón←▼Marc Pitarch

75'▲Nacho Gimeno←▼Pablo Roig

75'▲Y. Fetheddine←▼M. Rivera

80'▲A. Gardiner←▼Mauro Costa

Castellón II substitutes

RadiuLidónGimenoFetheddineGardiner