Torrent 2–0 Azuaga: Result & Stats

Torrent

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Azuaga

6/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torrent49%

×Draw34%

Azuaga17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchAzuaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.50

Torrent

1.06

Azuaga

0.50

Torrent creates 112% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Torrent

1.33

Azuaga

1.00

allows per match

Torrent

0.00

Azuaga

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Azuaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–111%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

21%79%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

83%

Torrent or Azuaga

66%

Draw or Azuaga

51%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

20%

Azuaga wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

65%

Torrent 2+ goals

29%

Torrent 3+ goals

9%

Azuaga 1+ goals

39%

Azuaga 2+ goals

9%

Azuaga 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

74%

Azuaga (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.33 + Azuaga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Azuaga attack 1.00 + Torrent defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torrent scores more

49%

level

34%

Azuaga scores more

17%

Torrent at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff