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Torrent vs Atzeneta — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Torrent
Torrent
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atzeneta
Atzeneta
5/13/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torrent42%
×Draw41%
Atzeneta16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrent
0.79
Atzeneta
0.38

Torrent creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Torrent
1.33
Atzeneta
0.75

allows per match

Torrent
0.00
Atzeneta
0.25

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par
Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Under
  • Under89
  • Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Atzeneta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–031%
0–112%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
69%31%1.5
33%67%2.5
11%89%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Torrent or draw
84%
Torrent or Atzeneta
59%
Draw or Atzeneta
58%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+
14%
Atzeneta wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals
55%
Torrent 2+ goals
19%
Torrent 3+ goals
5%
Atzeneta 1+ goals
32%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
6%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)
72%
Atzeneta (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.33 + Atzeneta defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Atzeneta attack 0.75 + Torrent defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torrent scores more
42%
level
41%
Atzeneta scores more
16%

Torrent at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrent vs Atzeneta

Torrent and Atzeneta drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.