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Torrellano vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrellano
Torrellano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valencia II
Valencia II
4/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Polideportivo Isabel Fernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Torrellano39%
×Draw30%
Valencia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrellano
1.13
Valencia II
0.99

Torrellano creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 18 away

creates per match

Torrellano
1.31
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Torrellano
1.04
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Torrellano+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrellano ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Torrellano or draw
68%
Torrellano or Valencia II
70%
Draw or Valencia II
61%

Winning margin

Torrellano wins by 2+
16%
Valencia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torrellano 1+ goals
68%
Torrellano 2+ goals
31%
Torrellano 3+ goals
11%
Valencia II 1+ goals
63%
Valencia II 2+ goals
26%
Valencia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torrellano (draw refunded)
55%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrellano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrellano attack 1.31 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Torrellano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torrellano scores more
39%
level
30%
Valencia II scores more
32%

Torrellano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torrellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrellano 0–1 Valencia II

Valencia II beat Torrellano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Isabel Fernández in Torrellano.