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Torrellano vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrellano
Torrellano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
4/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Polideportivo Isabel Fernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torrellano44%
×Draw27%
Racing CF Benidorm29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrellano
1.36
Racing CF Benidorm
1.05

Torrellano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torrellano
1.31
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Torrellano
1.04
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Torrellano+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrellano ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torrellano or draw
71%
Torrellano or Racing CF Benidorm
73%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
56%

Winning margin

Torrellano wins by 2+
21%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torrellano 1+ goals
74%
Torrellano 2+ goals
39%
Torrellano 3+ goals
16%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
65%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
28%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torrellano (draw refunded)
60%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrellano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrellano attack 1.31 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Torrellano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torrellano scores more
44%
level
27%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
29%

Torrellano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrellano 1 – 1 Racing CF Benidorm

Torrellano and Racing CF Benidorm drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Isabel Fernández in Torrellano.