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Torrellano vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrellano
Torrellano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
10/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Polideportivo Isabel Fernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Torrellano36%
×Draw28%
Elche II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrellano
1.16
Elche II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 77 away

creates per match

Torrellano
1.31
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Torrellano
1.04
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Torrellano+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrellano ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torrellano or draw
64%
Torrellano or Elche II
72%
Draw or Elche II
64%

Winning margin

Torrellano wins by 2+
15%
Elche II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torrellano 1+ goals
69%
Torrellano 2+ goals
32%
Torrellano 3+ goals
11%
Elche II 1+ goals
68%
Elche II 2+ goals
32%
Elche II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torrellano (draw refunded)
50%
Elche II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrellano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrellano attack 1.31 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Elche II attack 1.25 + Torrellano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Torrellano scores more
36%
level
28%
Elche II scores more
36%

Torrellano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Torrellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrellano 1–1 Elche II

Torrellano and Elche II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Isabel Fernández in Torrellano.