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Torrellano vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrellano
Torrellano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
1/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Torrellano47%
×Draw29%
Callosa Deportiva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrellano
1.29
Callosa Deportiva
0.85

Torrellano creates 52% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 18 away

creates per match

Torrellano
1.31
Callosa Deportiva
0.67

allows per match

Torrellano
1.04
Callosa Deportiva
1.28

finishing

Torrellano+0.00on par
Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrellano ↓

Callosa Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torrellano or draw
75%
Torrellano or Callosa Deportiva
71%
Draw or Callosa Deportiva
53%

Winning margin

Torrellano wins by 2+
22%
Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torrellano 1+ goals
72%
Torrellano 2+ goals
37%
Torrellano 3+ goals
14%
Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
57%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
21%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torrellano (draw refunded)
66%
Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrellano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrellano attack 1.31 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Torrellano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torrellano scores more
47%
level
29%
Callosa Deportiva scores more
25%

Torrellano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torrellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrellano 1–2 Callosa Deportiva

Callosa Deportiva beat Torrellano 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel in Alicante.