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Torrejón vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 39Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Torrejón52%
×Draw23%
Villaviciosa Odón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.86
Villaviciosa Odón
1.22

Torrejón creates 52% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 20 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
75%
Torrejón or Villaviciosa Odón
77%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
48%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
29%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
84%
Torrejón 2+ goals
55%
Torrejón 3+ goals
28%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
70%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
34%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
68%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.86

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Torrejón scores more
52%
level
23%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
25%

Torrejón at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrejón 3 – 3 Villaviciosa Odón

Torrejón and Villaviciosa Odón drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.