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Torrejón vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Torrejón36%
×Draw28%
Ursaria35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.17
Ursaria
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 35 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
65%
Torrejón or Ursaria
72%
Draw or Ursaria
64%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
15%
Ursaria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
69%
Torrejón 2+ goals
33%
Torrejón 3+ goals
11%
Ursaria 1+ goals
68%
Ursaria 2+ goals
32%
Ursaria 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
51%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Torrejón scores more
36%
level
28%
Ursaria scores more
35%

Torrejón at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrejón vs Ursaria

Torrejón beat Ursaria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.