Torrejón 1–1 SS Reyes II: Result & Stats

Torrejón

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SS Reyes II

3/29/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torrejón41%

×Draw27%

SS Reyes II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrejónExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Torrejón

1.33

SS Reyes II

1.14

Torrejón creates 17% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

1.35

0.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Torrejón

1.43

SS Reyes II

1.35

allows per match

Torrejón

0.93

SS Reyes II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par

SS Reyes II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

SS Reyes II →

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw

68%

Torrejón or SS Reyes II

73%

Draw or SS Reyes II

59%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+

19%

SS Reyes II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals

74%

Torrejón 2+ goals

38%

Torrejón 3+ goals

15%

SS Reyes II 1+ goals

68%

SS Reyes II 2+ goals

32%

SS Reyes II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)

56%

SS Reyes II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

SS Reyes II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + SS Reyes II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

SS Reyes II attack 1.35 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torrejón scores more

41%

level

27%

SS Reyes II scores more

32%

Torrejón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrejón vs SS Reyes II

Torrejón and SS Reyes II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.

Torrejón vs SS Reyes II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torrejón vs SS Reyes II