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Torrejón vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
4/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Torrejón42%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.31
RSD Alcalá
1.08

Torrejón creates 21% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 99 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
69%
Torrejón or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
58%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
19%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
73%
Torrejón 2+ goals
38%
Torrejón 3+ goals
14%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
66%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
29%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
58%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torrejón scores more
42%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
31%

Torrejón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Torrejón 1–1 RSD Alcalá

Torrejón and RSD Alcalá drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.