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Torrejón vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torrejón61%
×Draw22%
Real Aranjuez17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.86
Real Aranjuez
0.87

Torrejón creates 114% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 31 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Real Aranjuez
0.81

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Real Aranjuez
2.29

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Real Aranjuez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
83%
Torrejón or Real Aranjuez
78%
Draw or Real Aranjuez
39%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
36%
Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
84%
Torrejón 2+ goals
55%
Torrejón 3+ goals
28%
Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
58%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
22%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
78%
Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torrejón scores more
61%
level
22%
Real Aranjuez scores more
17%

Torrejón at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Torrejón 4–2 Real Aranjuez

Torrejón beat Real Aranjuez 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.