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Torrejón vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Torrejón44%
×Draw27%
Madrid 2021 FP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.39
Madrid 2021 FP
1.09

Torrejón creates 28% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 35 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
71%
Torrejón or Madrid 2021 FP
73%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
56%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
21%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
75%
Torrejón 2+ goals
40%
Torrejón 3+ goals
16%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
66%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
30%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
60%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torrejón scores more
44%
level
27%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
29%

Torrejón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrejón 2 – 0 Madrid 2021 FP

Torrejón beat Madrid 2021 FP 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.