Torrejón 2–0 Flat Earth: Result & Stats

Torrejón

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flat Earth

10/25/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Torrejón47%

×Draw28%

Flat Earth25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrejónExpected goals in this matchFlat Earth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.88

Torrejón

1.32

Flat Earth

0.88

Torrejón creates 50% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

0.82

0.93

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Torrejón

1.43

Flat Earth

0.82

allows per match

Torrejón

0.93

Flat Earth

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Flat Earth →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw

75%

Torrejón or Flat Earth

72%

Draw or Flat Earth

53%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+

22%

Flat Earth wins by 2+

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals

73%

Torrejón 2+ goals

38%

Torrejón 3+ goals

15%

Flat Earth 1+ goals

59%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

22%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)

65%

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torrejón scores more

47%

level

28%

Flat Earth scores more

25%

Torrejón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff