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Torrejón vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
CANC
22:00
El Álamo
El Álamo
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 38Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrejón55%
×Draw25%
El Álamo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.63
El Álamo
0.89

Torrejón creates 83% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 47 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
79%
Torrejón or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
45%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
29%
El Álamo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
80%
Torrejón 2+ goals
48%
Torrejón 3+ goals
22%
El Álamo 1+ goals
59%
El Álamo 2+ goals
22%
El Álamo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
73%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torrejón scores more
55%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
21%

Torrejón at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrejón vs El Álamo — Match Preview

Torrejón face El Álamo on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Torrejón host El Álamo at Estadio Las Veredillas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.