Torrejón 1–0 Carabanchel: Result & Stats

Torrejón

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carabanchel

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Torrejón50%

×Draw26%

Carabanchel24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrejónExpected goals in this matchCarabanchel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Torrejón

1.48

Carabanchel

0.94

Torrejón creates 57% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 82 away

1.43

creates per match

0.95

0.93

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Torrejón

1.43

Carabanchel

0.95

allows per match

Torrejón

0.93

Carabanchel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Carabanchel →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw

76%

Torrejón or Carabanchel

74%

Draw or Carabanchel

50%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+

25%

Carabanchel wins by 2+

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals

77%

Torrejón 2+ goals

43%

Torrejón 3+ goals

19%

Carabanchel 1+ goals

61%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

24%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)

67%

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torrejón scores more

50%

level

26%

Carabanchel scores more

24%

Torrejón at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff