Torrejón 2–0 Canillas: Result & Stats

Torrejón

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Canillas

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Torrejón53%

×Draw25%

Canillas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrejónExpected goals in this matchCanillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.99

Torrejón

1.65

Canillas

0.99

Torrejón creates 67% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 49 away

1.43

creates per match

1.04

0.93

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Torrejón

1.43

Canillas

1.04

allows per match

Torrejón

0.93

Canillas

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par

Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Canillas →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw

77%

Torrejón or Canillas

75%

Draw or Canillas

47%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+

28%

Canillas wins by 2+

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals

81%

Torrejón 2+ goals

49%

Torrejón 3+ goals

23%

Canillas 1+ goals

63%

Canillas 2+ goals

26%

Canillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)

70%

Canillas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Canillas attack 1.04 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torrejón scores more

53%

level

25%

Canillas scores more

23%

Torrejón at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff