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Torrejón vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Torrejón29%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.01
Atlético Madrid II
1.27

Atlético Madrid II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 20 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
58%
Torrejón or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
71%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
64%
Torrejón 2+ goals
27%
Torrejón 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
41%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torrejón scores more
29%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
42%

Atlético Madrid II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrejón 0 – 1 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Torrejón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.