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Torreense W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Torreense W
Torreense W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
9/14/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 1Estadio Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Torreense W41%
×Draw25%
Valadares Gaia W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense W
1.51
Valadares Gaia W
1.34

Torreense W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Torreense W
1.62
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Torreense W
1.55
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Torreense W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Torreense W or draw
66%
Torreense W or Valadares Gaia W
75%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
59%

Winning margin

Torreense W wins by 2+
20%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torreense W 1+ goals
78%
Torreense W 2+ goals
44%
Torreense W 3+ goals
19%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
74%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
39%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torreense W (draw refunded)
55%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense W attack 1.62 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Torreense W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torreense W scores more
41%
level
25%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
34%

Torreense W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torreense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Torreense W 0–1 Valadares Gaia W

Valadares Gaia W beat Torreense W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.