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Torreense W vs Sporting CP W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Torreense W
Torreense W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
3/9/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 16Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Torreense W18%
×Draw20%
Sporting CP W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense W
1.09
Sporting CP W
2.15

Sporting CP W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Torreense W
1.62
Sporting CP W
2.74

allows per match

Torreense W
1.55
Sporting CP W
0.57

finishing

Torreense W+0.00on par
Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense W ↓

Sporting CP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Torreense W or draw
39%
Torreense W or Sporting CP W
80%
Draw or Sporting CP W
82%

Winning margin

Torreense W wins by 2+
7%
Sporting CP W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Torreense W 1+ goals
66%
Torreense W 2+ goals
30%
Torreense W 3+ goals
10%
Sporting CP W 1+ goals
88%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
63%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Torreense W (draw refunded)
23%
Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense W attack 1.62 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Torreense W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torreense W scores more
18%
level
20%
Sporting CP W scores more
61%

Sporting CP W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreense W vs Sporting CP W

Sporting CP W beat Torreense W 3-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.