Torreense W 1–0 Famalicão W: Result & Stats

Torreense W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Famalicão W

10/14/2023

1a Divisão - Women · Round 4Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Torreense W44%

×Draw23%

Famalicão W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torreense WExpected goals in this matchFamalicão W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.46

Torreense W

1.74

Famalicão W

1.46

Torreense W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 33 away

1.62

creates per match

1.36

1.55

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Torreense W

1.62

Famalicão W

1.36

allows per match

Torreense W

1.55

Famalicão W

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense W+0.00on par

Famalicão W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense W ↓

Famalicão W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Torreense W or draw

68%

Torreense W or Famalicão W

77%

Draw or Famalicão W

56%

Winning margin

Torreense W wins by 2+

23%

Famalicão W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Torreense W 1+ goals

82%

Torreense W 2+ goals

52%

Torreense W 3+ goals

25%

Famalicão W 1+ goals

77%

Famalicão W 2+ goals

43%

Famalicão W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Torreense W (draw refunded)

58%

Famalicão W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

Famalicão W away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense W attack 1.62 + Famalicão W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Famalicão W attack 1.36 + Torreense W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torreense W scores more

44%

level

23%

Famalicão W scores more

32%

Torreense W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torreense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff