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Torreense W vs Amora W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Torreense W
Torreense W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amora W
Amora W
5/7/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 20Parque Desportivo Maximino Franco Dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Torreense W71%
×Draw16%
Amora W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense W
2.72
Amora W
1.09

Torreense W creates 150% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Torreense W
1.62
Amora W
0.64

allows per match

Torreense W
1.55
Amora W
3.82

finishing

Torreense W+0.00on par
Amora W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense W ↓

Amora W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Torreense W or draw
87%
Torreense W or Amora W
84%
Draw or Amora W
29%

Winning margin

Torreense W wins by 2+
50%
Amora W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torreense W 1+ goals
93%
Torreense W 2+ goals
75%
Torreense W 3+ goals
50%
Amora W 1+ goals
66%
Amora W 2+ goals
30%
Amora W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torreense W (draw refunded)
85%
Amora W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

Amora W away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense W attack 1.62 + Amora W defence 3.82 → ÷2 → 2.72

Amora W attack 0.64 + Torreense W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Torreense W scores more
71%
level
16%
Amora W scores more
13%

Torreense W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Torreense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Torreense W 2–1 Amora W

Torreense W beat Amora W 2-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Maximino Franco Dos Santos in A dos Cunhados.