Torreense 0–1 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Torreense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vitoria Setubal

11/5/2021

Liga 3 · Round 8Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torreense54%

×Draw25%

Vitoria Setubal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreenseExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.91

Torreense

1.60

Vitoria Setubal

0.91

Torreense creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.64

creates per match

0.96

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Torreense

1.64

Vitoria Setubal

0.96

allows per match

Torreense

0.86

Vitoria Setubal

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torreense or draw

79%

Torreense or Vitoria Setubal

75%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

46%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+

28%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals

80%

Torreense 2+ goals

47%

Torreense 3+ goals

22%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

60%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

23%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)

71%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.64 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Torreense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Torreense scores more

54%

level

25%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

21%

Torreense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff