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Torreense vs Santa Clara — Segunda Liga 2018

Torreense
Torreense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
1/21/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 18Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torreense31%
×Draw29%
Santa Clara41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.02
Santa Clara
1.22

Santa Clara creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torreense
1.40
Santa Clara
1.35

allows per match

Torreense
1.09
Santa Clara
0.65

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
59%
Torreense or Santa Clara
71%
Draw or Santa Clara
69%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
12%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
64%
Torreense 2+ goals
27%
Torreense 3+ goals
8%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
70%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
34%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
43%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.40 + Santa Clara defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.02

Santa Clara attack 1.35 + Torreense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torreense scores more
31%
level
29%
Santa Clara scores more
41%

Santa Clara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreense vs Santa Clara

Santa Clara beat Torreense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.