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Torreense vs Rio Ave — Taça de Portugal 2018

Torreense
Torreense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
10/22/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Torreense47%
×Draw23%
Rio Ave31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.86
Rio Ave
1.48

Torreense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Torreense
2.00
Rio Ave
2.09

allows per match

Torreense
0.88
Rio Ave
1.73

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
69%
Torreense or Rio Ave
77%
Draw or Rio Ave
53%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
26%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
84%
Torreense 2+ goals
55%
Torreense 3+ goals
28%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
77%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
43%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
60%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 2.00 + Rio Ave defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rio Ave attack 2.09 + Torreense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Torreense scores more
47%
level
23%
Rio Ave scores more
31%

Torreense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Torreense 2–1 Rio Ave

Torreense beat Rio Ave 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.