Torreense 2–0 Fafe: Result & Stats

Torreense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fafe

Stopira 90' (pen)

David Bruno 84'

4/23/2026

Taça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstadio Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Torreense33%

×Draw28%

Fafe39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreenseExpected goals in this matchFafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Torreense

1.13

Fafe

1.25

Fafe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

1.63

0.88

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Torreense

2.00

Fafe

1.63

allows per match

Torreense

0.88

Fafe

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par

Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Fafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torreense or draw

61%

Torreense or Fafe

72%

Draw or Fafe

67%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+

13%

Fafe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals

68%

Torreense 2+ goals

31%

Torreense 3+ goals

11%

Fafe 1+ goals

71%

Fafe 2+ goals

36%

Fafe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)

46%

Fafe (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 2.00 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fafe attack 1.63 + Torreense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torreense scores more

33%

level

28%

Fafe scores more

39%

Fafe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Carlos Daniel

45+1'

D. Mohamed

67'

V. Braga← J. Santos

77'

Guilherme Liberato← A. Simoes

77'

I. Seydi← L. Quintero

79'

Guilherme Liberato

82'

T. Veiga← Picas

82'

Ka← T. Fonseca

84'

David Bruno↳ J. Vazquez

86'

90+9'

90+10'

90+5'

90'

StopiraPenalty

Torreense

Fafe

64

85

26

4

13

77

35

60

11

▼

Picas

9

▼

Santos

95

▼

Fonseca

1

Paes

22

⚽

Bruno

93

Mohamed

2

⚽

Stopira

23

A

Vazquez

6

Silva

8

▼

Alfaro

29

▼

Quintero

26

▼

Simoes

7

Jean

9

▼

Zohi

Manager: Luis Tralhao

77'▲Guilherme Liberato←▼A. Simoes

77'▲I. Seydi←▼L. Quintero

86'▲M. Drammeh←▼K. Zohi

90+5'▲B. Agbor←▼A. Alfaro

Torreense substitutes

13Perez65Liberato46Agbor4Casas14Assuncao70Marques31Seydi57Danilo17Drammeh

Manager: Mario Ferreira

67'▲V. Braga←▼J. Santos

82'▲T. Veiga←▼Picas

82'▲Ka←▼T. Fonseca

Fafe substitutes

22Manu20Amorim7Veiga15Breno78Pinto10Ka79Teixeira8Braga5Oliveira

Taça de Portugal: Torreense 2–0 Fafe

Torreense beat Fafe 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on April 23, 2026.

Goals: David Bruno (84'), Stopira (90' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.

Torreense vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Taça de Portugal: Torreense 2–0 Fafe