Torreense 2–3 Chaves: Result & Stats

Torreense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Chaves

Leandro Freire 90' (OG)

Bonifácio 34'

R. Battaglia 90+9' (pen)

Fábio Martins 58'

Perdigão 44'

12/14/2016

Taça de Portugal · 8th FinalsCampo Manuel Marques (Torres Vedras)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Torreense46%

×Draw25%

Chaves29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreenseExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.22

Torreense

1.58

Chaves

1.22

Torreense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Torreense

2.00

Chaves

1.33

allows per match

Torreense

1.11

Chaves

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Chaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Torreense or draw

71%

Torreense or Chaves

75%

Draw or Chaves

54%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+

23%

Chaves wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals

79%

Torreense 2+ goals

47%

Torreense 3+ goals

21%

Chaves 1+ goals

70%

Chaves 2+ goals

34%

Chaves 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)

61%

Chaves (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 2.00 + Chaves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chaves attack 1.33 + Torreense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torreense scores more

46%

level

25%

Chaves scores more

29%

Torreense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Bonifácio

44'

Perdigão

55'

Diego Zilio← Zhang Lingfeng

58'

Fábio Martins

76'

Rafael Lopes← Willian

80'

Tiago Pereira← Rui Burguette

83'

A. Fall← Bruno Braga

90'

Leandro FreireOwn goal

90+9'

R. BattagliaPenalty

Torreense

Chaves

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Rui Narciso

55'▲Diego Zilio←▼Zhang Lingfeng

80'▲Tiago Pereira←▼Rui Burguette

Torreense substitutes

ZilioPereiraSoroLoboDeodato

Manager: Jorge Simão

76'▲Rafael Lopes←▼Willian

83'▲A. Fall←▼Bruno Braga

Chaves substitutes

LopesFallSantosPatrãoQueirósNunesVukčević

Match Recap: Torreense vs Chaves

Chaves beat Torreense 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on December 14, 2016.

Goals: Bonifácio (34'), Perdigão (44'), Fábio Martins (58'), Leandro Freire (90' o.g.), R. Battaglia (90+9' pen).

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques (Torres Vedras).

Torreense vs Chaves — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torreense vs Chaves