Torreense U23 0–2 Leixões U23: Result & Stats

Torreense U23

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leixões U23

5/11/2026

Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torreense U2325%

×Draw26%

Leixões U2349%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torreense U23Expected goals in this matchLeixões U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.52

Torreense U23

1.02

Leixões U23

1.52

Leixões U23 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

0.80

creates per match

1.25

1.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Torreense U23

0.80

Leixões U23

1.25

allows per match

Torreense U23

1.80

Leixões U23

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreense U23+0.00on par

Leixões U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense U23 ↓

Leixões U23 →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torreense U23 or draw

51%

Torreense U23 or Leixões U23

74%

Draw or Leixões U23

75%

Winning margin

Torreense U23 wins by 2+

Leixões U23 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Torreense U23 1+ goals

64%

Torreense U23 2+ goals

27%

Torreense U23 3+ goals

Leixões U23 1+ goals

78%

Leixões U23 2+ goals

45%

Leixões U23 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Torreense U23 (draw refunded)

34%

Leixões U23 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreense U23 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Leixões U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreense U23 attack 0.80 + Leixões U23 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Leixões U23 attack 1.25 + Torreense U23 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torreense U23 scores more

25%

level

26%

Leixões U23 scores more

49%

Leixões U23 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leixões U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff