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Torre del Mar vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
6/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torre del Mar40%
×Draw35%
Real Jaén25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
0.92
Real Jaén
0.67

Torre del Mar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.00
Real Jaén
0.83

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.50
Real Jaén
0.83

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
75%
Torre del Mar or Real Jaén
65%
Draw or Real Jaén
60%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
14%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
60%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
23%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
7%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
49%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
15%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
61%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.00 + Real Jaén defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Real Jaén attack 0.83 + Torre del Mar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
40%
level
35%
Real Jaén scores more
25%

Torre del Mar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Torre del Mar 1–0 Real Jaén

Torre del Mar beat Real Jaén 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.