Torre del Mar 3–1 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Torre del Mar

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Jaén

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Torre del Mar46%

×Draw28%

Real Jaén27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torre del MarExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.95

Torre del Mar

1.34

Real Jaén

0.95

Torre del Mar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 93 away

1.65

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Torre del Mar

1.65

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Torre del Mar

0.76

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Real Jaén →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw

73%

Torre del Mar or Real Jaén

72%

Draw or Real Jaén

54%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

21%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

74%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

39%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

15%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

61%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

25%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

63%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torre del Mar scores more

46%

level

28%

Real Jaén scores more

27%

Torre del Mar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 3–1 Real Jaén

Torre del Mar beat Real Jaén 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.

Torre del Mar vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 3–1 Real Jaén