Torre del Mar 4–0 Polideportivo Almería

Torre del Mar

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Pato Ruz 90'

Manu de la Lama 71', 29', 15'

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Torre del Mar60%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torre del MarExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.80

Torre del Mar

1.75

Polideportivo Almería

0.80

Torre del Mar creates 119% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 63 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

0.76

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Torre del Mar

1.65

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Torre del Mar

0.76

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw

83%

Torre del Mar or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

40%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

34%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

83%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

52%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

25%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

55%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

19%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

78%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Torre del Mar scores more

60%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

17%

Torre del Mar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Manu de la Lama

29'

Manu de la Lama

46'

Córdoba← J. Randal

46'

Naím← Guille Espínola

60'

Campanas← Linares

60'

Samu← Antoñito

68'

Dani González← Roberto Sierra

68'

Pato Ruz← K. Ballo

71'

Manu de la Lama

75'

Iván López← Rafa Castillo

75'

Rubén García← Paco Ariza

77'

Juanjo López← Daniel Lidueña

80'

Miguel García← Juan Arroyo

90'

Pato Ruz

Torre

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juanma

68'▲Dani González←▼Roberto Sierra

68'▲Pato Ruz←▼K. Ballo

75'▲Iván López←▼Rafa Castillo

75'▲Rubén García←▼Paco Ariza

80'▲Miguel García←▼Juan Arroyo

Torre del Mar substitutes

GonzálezRuzLópezGarcíaGarcía

Manager: David Cartagena

46'▲Córdoba←▼J. Randal

46'▲Naím←▼Guille Espínola

60'▲Campanas←▼Linares

60'▲Samu←▼Antoñito

77'▲Juanjo López←▼Daniel Lidueña

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

CórdobaNaímCampanasSamuLópez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 4–0 Polideportivo Almería

Torre del Mar beat Polideportivo Almería 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 3, 2024.

Goals: Manu de la Lama (15', 29', 71'), Pato Ruz (90').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.

Torre del Mar vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 4–0 Polideportivo Almería