Torre del Mar 2–1 Motril: Result & Stats

Torre del Mar

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Motril

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Torre del Mar45%

×Draw28%

Motril27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torre del MarExpected goals in this matchMotril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.97

Torre del Mar

1.35

Motril

0.97

Torre del Mar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 112 away

1.65

creates per match

1.18

0.76

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Torre del Mar

1.65

Motril

1.18

allows per match

Torre del Mar

0.76

Motril

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Motril →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw

73%

Torre del Mar or Motril

72%

Draw or Motril

55%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

21%

Motril wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

74%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

39%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

15%

Motril 1+ goals

62%

Motril 2+ goals

25%

Motril 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

63%

Motril (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.35

Motril attack 1.18 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torre del Mar scores more

45%

level

28%

Motril scores more

27%

Torre del Mar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff