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Motril vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
1/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Motril46%
×Draw26%
Torre del Mar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.46
Torre del Mar
1.09

Motril creates 34% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 83 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Motril or draw
72%
Motril or Torre del Mar
74%
Draw or Torre del Mar
54%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
22%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
77%
Motril 2+ goals
43%
Motril 3+ goals
18%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
66%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
30%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
62%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Motril scores more
46%
level
26%
Torre del Mar scores more
28%

Motril at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 0–4 Torre del Mar

Torre del Mar beat Motril 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.