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Torre del Mar vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Málaga II
Málaga II
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Torre del Mar44%
×Draw27%
Málaga II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.38
Málaga II
1.06

Torre del Mar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 92 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
71%
Torre del Mar or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
56%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
21%
Málaga II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
75%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
40%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
16%
Málaga II 1+ goals
65%
Málaga II 2+ goals
29%
Málaga II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
60%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
44%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
29%

Torre del Mar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torre del Mar 0 – 2 Málaga II

Málaga II beat Torre del Mar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.