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Torre del Mar vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Torre del Mar38%
×Draw28%
Juventud Torremolinos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.23
Juventud Torremolinos
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
66%
Torre del Mar or Juventud Torremolinos
72%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
62%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
16%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
71%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
35%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
13%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
68%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
32%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
53%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
38%
level
28%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
34%

Torre del Mar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 1–1 Juventud Torremolinos

Torre del Mar and Juventud Torremolinos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.