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Torre del Mar vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Torre del Mar51%
×Draw26%
Huétor Vega22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.51
Huétor Vega
0.90

Torre del Mar creates 68% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 109 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
78%
Torre del Mar or Huétor Vega
74%
Draw or Huétor Vega
49%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
26%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
78%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
44%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
19%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
59%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
23%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
70%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
51%
level
26%
Huétor Vega scores more
22%

Torre del Mar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torre del Mar 3 – 1 Huétor Vega

Torre del Mar beat Huétor Vega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.