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Torre del Mar vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Torre del Mar62%
×Draw22%
Alhaurín16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.93
Alhaurín
0.87

Torre del Mar creates 122% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 43 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
84%
Torre del Mar or Alhaurín
78%
Draw or Alhaurín
38%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
37%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
85%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
57%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
30%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
58%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
22%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
79%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.93

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
62%
level
22%
Alhaurín scores more
16%

Torre del Mar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torre del Mar 1–0 Alhaurín

Torre del Mar beat Alhaurín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.