Torre Calcio 2–4 KuuLa: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Torre Calcio

2 – 4

KuuLa

3/8/2025

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundTurku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torre Calcio23%

×Draw16%

KuuLa62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torre CalcioExpected goals in this matchKuuLa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

3.75

Torre Calcio

2.33

KuuLa

3.75

KuuLa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

3.17

4.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Torre Calcio

1.67

KuuLa

3.17

allows per match

Torre Calcio

4.33

KuuLa

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torre Calcio+0.00on par

KuuLa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre Calcio ↓

KuuLa →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–35%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

84%16%4.5

70%30%

Double chance

Torre Calcio or draw

38%

Torre Calcio or KuuLa

84%

Draw or KuuLa

77%

Winning margin

Torre Calcio wins by 2+

11%

KuuLa wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Torre Calcio 1+ goals

90%

Torre Calcio 2+ goals

67%

Torre Calcio 3+ goals

41%

KuuLa 1+ goals

97%

KuuLa 2+ goals

88%

KuuLa 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Torre Calcio (draw refunded)

27%

KuuLa (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torre Calcio at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

KuuLa away — creates 3.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torre Calcio attack 1.67 + KuuLa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

KuuLa attack 3.17 + Torre Calcio defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Torre Calcio scores more

23%

level

16%

KuuLa scores more

62%

KuuLa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KuuLa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff