Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torquay vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

Torquay
Torquay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salisbury
Salisbury
M. Jay 81'
D. Morgan 49'
N. Coppin 87'
3/10/2026League #51League #51 · South - 38Plainmoor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torquay55%
×Draw22%
Salisbury23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torquay
1.96
Salisbury
1.19

Torquay creates 65% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Torquay
2.19
Salisbury
1.07

allows per match

Torquay
1.31
Salisbury
1.73

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Torquay or draw
77%
Torquay or Salisbury
78%
Draw or Salisbury
45%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+
32%
Salisbury wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals
86%
Torquay 2+ goals
58%
Torquay 3+ goals
31%
Salisbury 1+ goals
70%
Salisbury 2+ goals
33%
Salisbury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)
71%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.96

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torquay scores more
55%
level
22%
Salisbury scores more
23%

Torquay at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
D. Morgan
81'
M. Jay
87'
N. Coppin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Torquay 2–1 Salisbury

Torquay beat Salisbury 2-1 in League #51 on March 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Morgan (49'), M. Jay (81'), N. Coppin (87').

The match was played at Plainmoor in Torquay.