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Torquay vs Plymouth — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torquay
Torquay
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
A. Pepple 28'
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Torquay22%
×Draw22%
Plymouth55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torquay
1.14
Plymouth
1.92

Plymouth creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torquay
1.60
Plymouth
2.83

allows per match

Torquay
1.00
Plymouth
0.67

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Torquay or draw
45%
Torquay or Plymouth
78%
Draw or Plymouth
78%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+
9%
Plymouth wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals
68%
Torquay 2+ goals
32%
Torquay 3+ goals
11%
Plymouth 1+ goals
85%
Plymouth 2+ goals
57%
Plymouth 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)
29%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 1.60 + Plymouth defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Plymouth attack 2.83 + Torquay defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torquay scores more
22%
level
22%
Plymouth scores more
55%

Plymouth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
A. Pepple

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torquay vs Plymouth

Plymouth beat Torquay 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.

Goals: A. Pepple (28').