Torquay 1–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Torquay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

B. McGavin 81'

7/23/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Plainmoor Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torquay62%

×Draw20%

Exeter City18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorquayExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.06

Torquay

2.13

Exeter City

1.06

Torquay creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Torquay

2.00

Exeter City

1.13

allows per match

Torquay

1.00

Exeter City

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Torquay or draw

82%

Torquay or Exeter City

80%

Draw or Exeter City

38%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+

38%

Exeter City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals

88%

Torquay 2+ goals

63%

Torquay 3+ goals

35%

Exeter City 1+ goals

65%

Exeter City 2+ goals

29%

Exeter City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)

77%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.00 + Exeter City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Exeter City attack 1.13 + Torquay defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Torquay scores more

62%

level

20%

Exeter City scores more

18%

Torquay at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'

B. McGavin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff