Torquay 1–2 Chesham United: Result & Stats

Torquay

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Chesham United

C. Cooke 32'

A. Lafleur 88', 49'

4/5/2025

League #51 · South - 42Plainmoor Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Torquay48%

×Draw24%

Chesham United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorquayExpected goals in this matchChesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Torquay

1.69

Chesham United

1.25

Torquay creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

2.19

creates per match

1.20

1.31

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Torquay

2.19

Chesham United

1.20

allows per match

Torquay

1.31

Chesham United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par

Chesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Chesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Torquay or draw

72%

Torquay or Chesham United

76%

Draw or Chesham United

52%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+

25%

Chesham United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals

82%

Torquay 2+ goals

50%

Torquay 3+ goals

24%

Chesham United 1+ goals

71%

Chesham United 2+ goals

36%

Chesham United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)

63%

Chesham United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Chesham United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Chesham United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chesham United attack 1.20 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torquay scores more

48%

level

24%

Chesham United scores more

28%

Torquay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

C. Cooke

49'

A. Lafleur

57'

E. Ilesanmi← O. Zanzala

68'

A. Lodge← Z. Joseph

68'

J. Grant← J. Connors

72'

O. Mussa← M. Jay

75'

78'

78'

80'

82'

W. Jenkins-Davies← O. Threlkeld

88'

A. Lafleur

Torquay

Chesham

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Wotton

57'▲E. Ilesanmi←▼O. Zanzala

72'▲O. Mussa←▼M. Jay

78'▲J. Thomas←▼F. Craske

82'▲W. Jenkins-Davies←▼O. Threlkeld

Torquay substitutes

IlesanmiMussaThomasJenkins-DaviesPalmer

Manager: M. Murray

68'▲A. Lodge←▼Z. Joseph

68'▲J. Grant←▼J. Connors

75'▲N. Minhas←▼M. Weiss

78'▲T. Foran←▼S. Brown

80'▲R. Upward←▼S. Esan

Chesham United substitutes

LodgeGrantMinhasForanUpward