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Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
11/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino34%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Minsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Zhodino
1.16
Dinamo Minsk
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 127 away

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino
1.48
Dinamo Minsk
1.61

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino
0.94
Dinamo Minsk
0.83

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw
61%
Torpedo Zhodino or Dinamo Minsk
73%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
66%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
46%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.61 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more
34%
level
27%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
39%

Dinamo Minsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 Dinamo Minsk

Torpedo Zhodino and Dinamo Minsk drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.