Torpedo Yerevan 1–2 West Armenia: Result & Stats

Torpedo Yerevan

FT

1 – 2

West Armenia

10/16/2019

First League · Round 11Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan19%

×Draw16%

West Armenia64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo YerevanExpected goals in this matchWest Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

3.04

Torpedo Yerevan

1.67

West Armenia

3.04

West Armenia creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

2.14

creates per match

3.02

3.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan

2.14

West Armenia

3.02

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan

3.07

West Armenia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

West Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw

36%

Torpedo Yerevan or West Armenia

84%

Draw or West Armenia

81%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

9%

West Armenia wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

81%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

50%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

23%

West Armenia 1+ goals

95%

West Armenia 2+ goals

80%

West Armenia 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

23%

West Armenia (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

19%

level

16%

West Armenia scores more

64%

West Armenia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff