Torpedo Yerevan 2–0 Masis: Result & Stats

Torpedo Yerevan

FT

2 – 0

Masis

10/30/2019

First League · Round 13Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan45%

×Draw20%

Masis36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo YerevanExpected goals in this matchMasis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

2.10

Torpedo Yerevan

2.35

Masis

2.10

Torpedo Yerevan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.14

3.07

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan

2.14

Masis

1.14

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan

3.07

Masis

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Masis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw

64%

Torpedo Yerevan or Masis

80%

Draw or Masis

55%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

26%

Masis wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

90%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

68%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

41%

Masis 1+ goals

88%

Masis 2+ goals

62%

Masis 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

56%

Masis (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.35

Masis attack 1.14 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

45%

level

20%

Masis scores more

36%

Torpedo Yerevan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff