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Torpedo Yerevan vs BKMA — First League 2019

Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
FT
2 – 1
BKMA
BKMA
8/31/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan19%
×Draw17%
BKMA64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Yerevan
1.60
BKMA
2.94

BKMA creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan
2.14
BKMA
2.81

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan
3.07
BKMA
1.07

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw
36%
Torpedo Yerevan or BKMA
83%
Draw or BKMA
81%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
8%
BKMA wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
80%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
47%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
22%
BKMA 1+ goals
95%
BKMA 2+ goals
79%
BKMA 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
23%
BKMA (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

BKMA away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + BKMA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

BKMA attack 2.81 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more
19%
level
17%
BKMA scores more
64%

BKMA at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Yerevan vs BKMA

Torpedo Yerevan beat BKMA 2-1 in First League on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.