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Torpedo Vladimir vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/31/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir39%
×Draw30%
Znamya Truda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Vladimir
1.10
Znamya Truda
0.92

Torpedo Vladimir creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir
0.63
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.13
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw
70%
Torpedo Vladimir or Znamya Truda
70%
Draw or Znamya Truda
61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
16%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
10%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
60%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
23%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
57%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 0.63 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more
39%
level
30%
Znamya Truda scores more
30%

Torpedo Vladimir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Vladimir vs Znamya Truda

Torpedo Vladimir beat Znamya Truda 2-0 in Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Vladimir.